TCCIP Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform 

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5 Climate Change (Scenario Setting) Description/Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) Values 

Greenhouse gases: 5 possible futures in 2100? 

The five scenarios cover a wide range of possible future greenhouse gas emissions: 

assuming a range from a sharp decline in global CO 2 emissions (aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 and then negative in the second half of the century) to a situation where CO 2 emissions will continue to increase sharply, tripling by 2050 and even more than tripling by 2100. 

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) / Reference source: IPCC 

These paths were developed by the scientific community to create a common framework for thinking about climate and to provide a model of five "scenarios" that take into account the social, economic, political and technological changes that may occur between now and 2100. These five scenario descriptions have been used to develop different scenarios for the evolution of economic, energy, and land use systems. 

Detailed explanation of 5 scenarios 

1. SSP1-1.9: The Paris Agreement 1.5° C target is a very ambitious vision to comply with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C target. 

This is the most optimistic scenario. By 2050, global CO2 emissions will be reduced to zero. Societies adopt greener practices, shifting the focus from economic growth to overall well-being. Increased investment in education and health, and reduced inequality. Severe weather events are more frequent, but the world has avoided the worst consequences of climate change. 

(1) Adaptation Challenge: Low 

(2) Mitigation Challenge: Low 

2. SSP1-2.6: Sustainable Development Scenario 

Global CO2 emissions have decreased significantly, but at a slower rate. The zero-emission goal is achieved after 2050. This scenario shows the same socio-economic trend of sustainable development as the first scenario, but the temperature rise will stabilize at around 1.8°C by the end of the century. 

(1) Adaptation Challenge: Medium 

(2) Mitigation Challenge: Medium 

3. SSP2-4.5: Medium-term scenario 

CO2 emissions hover near current levels and then begin to decline by mid-century. Socioeconomic factors follow historical trends and do not change significantly. Sustainability progress is slow, and there are differences between development and revenue growth. In this case, temperatures will rise by 2.7°C by the end of the century. 

(1) Adaptation Challenge: High 

(2) Mitigation Challenge: High

4. SSP3-7.0: Regional Competition Scenario 

Greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures continue to increase, and by 2100, CO2 emissions will almost double from current levels. Competition between countries has become more intense. Prioritize issues such as: country and food security. By the end of the century, the average temperature had risen by 3.6°C. 

(1) Adaptation Challenge: High
(2) Mitigation Challenge: Low

5. SSP5-8.5: Fossil fuel-driven development scenario 

This is the "worst-case scenario". By 2050, current CO2 emissions will almost double. The world economy is growing rapidly, but this growth is driven by fossil fuel extraction and energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the Earth's average temperature will rise catastrophically by 4.4°C. 

(1) Adaptation challenge: Low 

(2) Mitigation challenge: High

PS. Adaptation and mitigation are key dual challenges in addressing climate change 

Adaptation refers to the process of adapting to the current or future climate and its consequences: 

- Reducing the adverse effects of climate change 

Mitigation using favorable effects refers to taking measures to reduce the extent of human-induced global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions or capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 

Climate Forecast Average Forecast

This page describes the expected climate for Watershed #70. The Average Forecast page provides a full set of metrics for CCKP for in-depth analysis of future climate scenarios and potential risks posed by climate change. Data can be studied as predicted averages or anomalies (variations) and spatially presented as seasonal cycles, time series, or heat maps showing seasonal changes over a long-term time frame. Data can be analyzed on an annual, seasonal, or monthly basis. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different forecast time periods and sharing socioeconomic paths (SSPs). The SSP is designed to provide insights into the future climate based on identified emissions, mitigation efforts, and development pathways.  

The indicators are presented as a multi-model collection and represent the range and distribution of the most plausible change prediction outcomes for the selected SSP climate system. Individual models will be available soon. 

Climate projection data is modelling data from the Global Climate Models Compilation from the Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP) and is overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data provided is CMIP6, derived from CMIP Phase 6. The CMIP forms the data basis for the IPCC assessment report. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Data is presented in 0.25° x 0.25° (25km x 25km) resolution.